MSTR Q2 Preview: Will Soaring Bitcoin and AI Push the Stock Higher?

MSTR Q2 Preview: Will Soaring Bitcoin and AI Push the Stock Higher?

MicroStrategy (MSTR) Q2 2025 Earnings Preview: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR)—famous for being the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin—is set to announce its Q2 2025 earnings soon, and investors are asking: Is now the time to buy, sell, or hold MSTR stock?

The company’s bold crypto strategy, growing software business, and expanding AI tools present a mixed bag. Let’s break down the numbers, the risks, and the upside before earnings land.

 What Wall Street Expects from MicroStrategy’s Q2 Report

• Revenue estimate: $112.15 million

• Year-over-year growth: 0.64%

• Earnings per share (EPS): Loss of $0.12

• Same loss as 30 days ago

• Previous year’s EPS loss: $0.76

Bottom line: MicroStrategy is still expected to post a loss, but a much smaller one than last year. Slight revenue growth could be a positive sign—especially if crypto and software segments are driving it.

 Bitcoin Holdings – MicroStrategy’s Biggest Asset (and Risk)

 A Giant Bitcoin Treasury

As of July 20, 2025, MicroStrategy holds a massive 607,770 Bitcoins. In recent months alone, it added:

• 6,220 Bitcoins in July ($739.8 million)

• 10,100 Bitcoins in early June ($1.05 billion)

That’s a serious bet on crypto, and with Bitcoin up 13.7% year to date (as of April 28), the company has already gained:

• $4.1 billion in Q1 2025

• $5.8 billion more as of late April

MicroStrategy hopes to hit $15 billion in Bitcoin dollar gains by year-end, along with a 25% Bitcoin yield target.

 Why Bitcoin News Matters

Bitcoin’s rally has been fueled by:

• The Trump administration’s new Bitcoin reserve policy

• Rising institutional and corporate adoption

• Growing global recognition as a non-sovereign store of value

This environment gives MicroStrategy an edge—but also exposes it to crypto’s well-known volatility.

 Software & Subscription Growth – The Other Side of the Business

While Bitcoin grabs headlines, MicroStrategy’s core software business is quietly booming.

 Q1 Highlights

• Software subscription revenue: Up 62% year-over-year to $37.1 million

• Accounts for 33% of total Q1 revenues

• Subscription billings: Up 38% year-over-year to $24.5 million

This trend is expected to continue into Q2, offering a more stable and recurring revenue stream.

 New AI Product Launch: Mosaic

MicroStrategy is also leaning into AI with Mosaic, its new AI-powered Universal Intelligence Layer. This strategic move aligns with:

• The global shift to cloud-first solutions

• Expanding demand for analytics at scale

• Its flagship product Strategy One, which powers data tools across industries

Mosaic and Strategy One now serve major sectors, including:

• Retail

• Banking

• Technology

• Healthcare

• Public Sector

This AI focus could further diversify revenue and reduce reliance on crypto alone.

 Stock Performance – How Has MSTR Performed in 2025?

 Year-to-Date Return: +39.4%

MicroStrategy’s stock has outperformed key benchmarks and rivals:

• Zacks Computer & Tech Sector: +11.3%

• Zacks Computer Software Industry: +19.4%

• MARA Digital: +2.3%

• Tesla: –19.4%

• Riot Platforms (RIOT): +42.1% (the only one ahead)

This impressive rally shows investor confidence, largely driven by Bitcoin exposure.

 Is MSTR Stock Overvalued?

 High Valuation Alert

• Value Score: F (according to Zacks)

• Price-to-Book Ratio:

  • MSTR: 3.43x

  • MARA: 1.62x

  • RIOT: 1.76x

This suggests MicroStrategy is significantly more expensive than its crypto-mining peers, possibly pricing in big Bitcoin expectations already.

 Financial Strategy – Massive Fundraising Plans

MicroStrategy continues to fund its crypto purchases and expansion by raising capital.

• New stock offering: $2.47 billion from STRC Stock IPO

• Since Oct 2024, raised:

  • $20.9 billion in equity

  • $6.4 billion in fixed income

Under its 21/21 plan, MicroStrategy plans to raise:

• $42 billion in equity

• $42 billion in debt

• Remaining to raise: $21.1 billion (equity), $35.6 billion (fixed income)

This aggressive capital strategy allows it to continue acquiring Bitcoin and investing in growth—but also increases financial risk.

 Regulatory Tailwinds – Support for Crypto is Growing

Positive regulatory developments in the U.S. support MicroStrategy’s long-term crypto thesis:

• GENIUS Act (passed): Legal foundation for stablecoins

• CLARITY Act & Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (pending): More crypto-friendly policies on the horizon

This environment could boost confidence in firms with large crypto holdings.

 Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold MSTR Stock Before Q2 Earnings?

MicroStrategy is riding a wave of Bitcoin gains, strong software growth, and expanding AI products. But with a high valuation and ongoing losses, the stock carries risk—especially if Bitcoin pulls back.

Zacks currently rates MSTR stock a Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting investors may want to wait for:

• A better entry point

• Post-earnings clarity

• Confirmation of continued software and Bitcoin performance

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